📘 ZERNO Methodology

💰 1. Dividends are the base signal

ZERNO uses only paid dividends confirmed by official decisions. LTM, Dividend Aristocrat Score and part of valuation metrics are built on top of this data.

📅 2. LTM Dividend Yield

What does LTM show?

Yield based only on dividends actually paid in the last 12 months.

Calculation includes:

• paid dividends;
• normalization to current price;
• no forecasts.

LTM is the most conservative dividend-yield metric.

🔮 3. NTM Dividend Yield

What NTM means:

Expected dividends for the next 12 months recalculated to current price. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Notes:

• changes quickly with new information;
• reacts to reports and corporate actions;
• uses board recommendations and analyst/broker forecasts.

🏆 4. Dividend Aristocrat Score

Uses only actual dividend history.

Key factors:

• payment regularity across years;
• trend: growth, stability or decline;
• absence of cancellations;
• history length.

📈 5. Upside

Upside is the gap between current price and estimated fair value.

Positive means potential undervaluation; negative means potential overvaluation.

🎯 6. Fundamental target

Average target from top analysts and ZERNO platform valuation models.

🧮 7. Model upside: dividends + rates + risk premium

The model uses three inputs:

• expected future dividends;
• time value of money (current vs forward CBR rate);
• market risk premium.

Output is model fair value. Difference from current price is model upside.

📊 8. Price dynamics and index-relative move

Daily change

Shows market reaction in the current session.

Deviation vs index

Helps understand whether a stock is outperforming or underperforming the market.